User ID posted: " Michael Gayed: Supply Chain Destruction will Continue to Drive Inflation Higher https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kfqTyAiBY1c Michael Gayed: Supply Chain Destruction will Continue to Drive Inflation Higher by Palisades Gold Radio Tom welcomes return"
Michael Gayed: Supply Chain Destruction will Continue to Drive Inflation Higher
Tom welcomes returning guest Michael Gayed, Portfolio Manager at Toroso Asset Management. Michael is the author and publisher of the Lead-Lag Report.
Michael discusses the inflationary picture for the economy and the hellish performance of the bond markets. We're seeing large drawdowns in bonds and severe pain in fixed-income bonds. Negative real rates have been a problem for a while and the problems in this sector have broad implications. Yields spiking and bond sell-offs will increase the cost of financing. These costs will reduce the income of most companies and countries.
Europe is likely already in a recession and the United States may also have reached that point. He discusses the normal signs of recession and why the stock markets may not care.
We see a strong dollar with strong commodity demand which is an interesting phenomena. It seems unlikely that the Fed can control inflation and higher interest rates are not going to help countries get more grain.
Michael believes that unions are likely to make a long-term come back. It's difficult for the United States to produce many products at reasonable prices due to the cost of labor. It takes years to build up resources and manufacturing sectors. Most people today are looking for instant gratification.
Rating agencies may be forced to begin downgrading companies, particularly in this environment. They are seeing a lot of abnormal market relationships but eventually, markets will correct for these conditions.
He discusses his expectations for commodities and further money printing. Michael notes there is considerable infrastructure crumbling around the world.
We don't know the true prices for food given the current circumstances. However, we've been heading toward a food crisis for many years due to a lack of investment.
All of the current global problems will take considerable time to play out. Keep an eye on mortgage rates and housing because that may be the area where there is a considerable concern.
Michael Oliver: Large Funds are Starting to Take Notice of Commodities and Gold
Tom welcomes Michael Oliver back from Momentum Structural Analysis.
Michael notes that gold has not participated in the recent volatility and instead front ran most other commodities. He discusses the recent activity of markets and the impact on gold.
Michael discusses his call from October 2020 for a commodity explosion and how that played out. Commodities will have occasional pullbacks but but we in a new long-term bull market.
He discusses the crude market and how it was already moving late last year before Ukraine occurred. Crude could get quite volatile from here. Natural Gas broke out last year which signaled a major shift in markets. It may be at a fairly low-risk entry point and seems overdue to catch up.
Silver woke up in the summer of 2020 taking out a ceiling it had built. After that momentum cooled off with the price entering a trading range. Should we close out on the weekly above 26.50 you can expect a rapid breakout. Should gold ever move to $8000 then silver would be around $200. Silver has not collapsed but has bored everyone.
Michael discusses how the dollar index isn't an index. Movements in the dollar index don't directly relate to the dollar. The DXY is heavily weighted toward the Euro which reduces its usefulness. Try comparing currencies directly instead of relying on the weighted metrics of the DXY index.
They expect the commodity-based currencies to do well, particularly the Australian and Canadian dollars.
Stock markets and gold are currently inversely related, and the Fed is going to have to be careful. They want to raise rates so they can pull back once again. The next leg down for stocks will likely mean a new leg up for gold. Michael would not be surprised if the Fed is out of business inside of four years.
John Adams: The Silver Scandal
Tom welcomes back John Adams to the show. John is an economist and internationally recognized thought leader. He is the Chief Economist for As Good As Gold Australia.
John discusses in-depth his legal interactions with Kitco over the past ten months and how he was threatened under Australian libel laws. Kitco claimed to have severe damages from John's tweets which questioned the nature of various companies' unallocated fractional reserve metal offerings. Kitco claimed damages but failed to disclose their nature. Numerous other individuals worldwide have also questioned Kitco's offerings. Kitco's legal firm failed to respond to the majority of John's legal questions.
John eventually received a surprising response from Kitco legal firm Dentons which claimed that threats of violence had been made against employee(s) of said firm. The threats came from someone "acting in response to the incendiary rhetoric and vilification of Kitco and Dentons in your client's social media postings." They further stated they had referred the matter to Law enforcement, specifically the NSW Police. John contacted the NSW Police with an offer to answer any questions but law enforcement never followed up. At this point, the matter is assumed to be closed as many months have now passed.
Lastly, John discusses the risks of having metals in unallocated pool accounts and why these programs don't provide legal ownership.
Previous Michael Gayed, Michael Oliver, John Adams posts:
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