Chevron is up roughly 40% in just ten months since our January 12 call. At the time, the idea was met with a fair amount of skepticism — and, in some corners, outright laughter. Oil was supposed to go down. Chevron was supposed to struggle. Energy was yesterday’s story. Yes, sure. The only minor inconvenience was that the charts had apparently missed the meeting.
And perhaps the skeptics had also missed our June 2025 oil roadmap. Yes — 2025.
Back then, we were already looking at a much larger bullish structure for crude. Hormuz was mostly a word for people in the energy business. I would not have bet heavily on every official or TV expert finding the Strait of Hormuz on a blank map. A few months later, everyone suddenly became a maritime geographer. War arrived, oil spiked, and Chevron felt pretty good about the whole geography lesson.
Then came the tactical pullback. Oil cooled off amid extremely aggressive SPR releases and the usual chorus explaining why the move had finally been contained. Chevron pulled back as well. Fair enough. Markets need to breathe. But when July started shaping a monthly Bullish Engulfing, the message from the chart was becoming difficult to ignore: the rally probably had more work to do. Chevron was not the only energy name on our bullish list either.
Now it is October, Chevron is roughly 40% above the January level, and the really interesting part is that we are still nowhere near the upper end of the roadmap. The minimum long-term targets remain substantially above current prices, never mind the more ambitious ones. The exact path will obviously have its pullbacks and detours, but so far the larger Elliott Wave structure has behaved remarkably well.
A member recently mentioned that Investing Angles can sometimes give the impression of being a perma-bear source. Fair observation, especially when equities are producing bearish candles like they are on a factory shift. But we are not married to either animal. During the summer we were riding bullish waves in Financials and several Magnificent 7 names, and our outlooks on oil, natural gas, the Dollar, rates, and selected energy stocks have hardly been bearish. When everything looks gloomy, there is usually a bull market hiding somewhere. We will keep looking for it.
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And this brings me back to one of my favorite jokes from earlier this year. Back in April, I suggested that Chevron might want to start ordering new gas-station signs with more digits.
At the time, it sounded a little theatrical. Looking at the long-term energy roadmap now, perhaps the sign department should at least keep the catalog open. We are not there yet — but we may be one step closer.
