Gold: The Maginot LineThe bulls are running out of room, and the October 7 low may be the last defense for the impulsive case.
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Gold is running out of technical excuses. The bulls have survived several tests over the past two weeks, but the latest retreat has pushed them toward what may become their Maginot Line. And yes, choosing the Maginot Line as a metaphor for the last defense is perhaps not especially reassuring given how history treated the original. Still, this is where the battle is now.
At the Rosoku Desk, there is one remaining constructive option. Gold still has a chance to form a Rising Three Methods setup, but tomorrow matters. The metal needs to close above the October 15 low, defend the current support, and then produce something convincingly bullish on the 2D frame. Another weak close would make the candle map considerably more difficult to defend. This is not the moment for another C-. The bulls probably need at least a solid B.
The Elliott Wave department is even less forgiving. Gold failed to develop the clean higher-degree impulse we were looking for, so that path has been downgraded. The last meaningful line of defense is now the October 7 low. If that level holds, there is still a path where the current decline becomes an alternative wave b, preserving the possibility of another impulsive attempt higher. It is not the prettiest route, but at this stage the bulls probably should not complain about the scenery. If the October 7 low gives way, however, the conversation changes materially. The impulsive hopes would suffer another serious blow, and the probability of the larger bearish structure reasserting itself would rise sharply. Gold has been given several opportunities to prove that a meaningful bottom is forming. At some point, the market stops giving extensions on the homework. So this may be the last technical defense before the roadmap needs another serious revision. Tomorrow’s candle and the next 2D close should tell us whether the bulls can hold the line — or whether somebody simply found a way around the Maginot Line again. We cover the larger frames, broader probabilities, and mid- and long-term roadmap in our Weekly Gold Reports at Investing Angles. Invite your friends and earn rewards
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