[New post] Bullish Hammer in Gold Pointing to New All-Time Highs Before Year End
User ID posted: " https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3WBuC800lLg Bullish Hammer in Gold Pointing to New All-Time Highs Before Year End by Mario Innecco Today we will look at the technical picture for the gold price for traders and for those who would like to eliminate th"
Today we will look at the technical picture for the gold price for traders and for those who would like to eliminate the noise of daily or weekly market fluctuations.
You might be hearing Billy, he was on the sofa, but he jumped off. It's already quite warm here this morning. It's about 10:30am London time, I think it's gonna be a hot day. So he just wanted to go into wood floor today. First of all, I want to talk about an article that I wrote for my blog, maneco64.net. You might not know about my blog, I do write once in a while on that blog maybe once every other month, sometimes a little more. Not that much. But I do keep a blog. And with August 15, coming up tomorrow, which is a Sunday and August 15 1971. Having been the Sunday it's going to be an interesting live stream. Tomorrow night, my usual time 9pm London, which is 4pm. Eastern time. And I've said it before, in the last few weeks that we're gonna cover the closing of the gold window by President Nixon and what it meant and what it still means. Yes, we'll do our usual Q&A as well. And that this article I wrote this week, I posted it on my blog a couple of days ago, haven't announced it yet. Some people have read it already. People were looking at my blog once in a while. And I entitled it a Sunday to remember, it's just over 1200 words. And it's all about what I think Bretton Woods and the closing of the gold window meant. So if you want to prep for tomorrow's live stream, if you want to know a little more about it, and then ask me questions. I think there's some questions that I didn't answer maybe in that article. Yeah, read it. I'm going to put a link to this article below in the description to my blog maneco64.net. So today, I want to talk about gold. Silver did well, yesterday it did outperform, but we're gonna just look at gold in the technical picture. Does that mean? I don't think silver is gonna do well? No, it doesn't mean that. It's just that the technical picture for gold looks very interesting. And yes, I don't trade gold. I hold physical gold and silver. But many of you might want to trade set many of you, I know do trade paper gold. And even though I personally don't encourage people to do that, it's up to the individual to decide. And I like looking at the technicals as well, I follow the markets every day, I've been following it since I started my professional life at a small bank in Geneva. Yes, I have to see what's going on. And today I'm going to show you a weekly chart of gold first. And it's a bar chart, of course, which shows all the moves during the week, the high, the low, the open the close. And then I'm going to show you a line chart, a weekly line chart, which only shows you the close of the week. And I think that kind of chart is more suitable for people who don't trade gold who are maybe uncomfortable with what the gold price is doing. But I spoke about a formation, candlestick formation, which is a technical formation in technical analysis. I spoke about it in beginning of April this year because I thought gold had hammered a bottom, as I said, in two videos, actually that I made in the beginning of April. And it was proven to be right. I'll tell you what a hammer is and I'm going to access or reference technical analysis is explained by Martin praying. I've had this book for a very long time since the early to mid 90s. When I started working the futures market. I wanted to learn more about technical analysis. So Martin Pring here talks about a hammer and this is what he says a hammer is identical to a hanging man but occurs after a market decline when it is a bullish sign. He gets its name from the idea that the price is hammering out a bottom. In effect, it represents the kind of trading day or week, I would say, in this case that I'm looking at, when the price temporarily slipped quite sharply, for there is a run on the selling stops. Well, that's what happened on Friday, not this Friday, the Friday before during nonfarm and then on Sunday evening, Monday morning at London in the agent times. Nevertheless, the technical position is sufficiently constructed to cause buyers to come into the market and push the price back up towards or above the opening level. So that's what a hammer is, there was a hammer. On the weekly chart, as you can see here, I circled it at the end of March. And that gave me a signal that gold would go higher. And we did, we went from around 1750, all the way up to around 1920. In a matter of weeks, there may be a couple of months. Of course, last week, gold took a beating, especially after non-farm payroll number, which was better than expected, but really didn't warrant as much selling as we got. I think as praying says there were stops that were run. The bullion banks are good at knowing where the technical levels are, where the hedge funds have their stops, and hedge funds a lot of times our clients to the bullion bank. So that's what happened. Last week, you can see the red candle, that's the market going down. So we had another hammer this week. And Pring talks about the daily price action, in this case is the weekly price action. And it corresponds exactly to what he said here. You start the trading period with weakness. The stops are run. That was Monday, overnight, a Sunday and Monday, the gold market dropped to like 1660. I think at least in my system, some people have it a little higher. But that's what happens in the gold market. When you have futures when you have all paper instruments, you have different prices, trading, there's not just one price. And towards the end of the week, especially in the last couple of days of the week, gold did really well. We were up over 1% each of the last two days, if I'm not mistaken. And as you can see here, that hammer in August that we've had just in this past week, left like a green hammer, which means that actually the market finished up on the week despite starting really badly dropping over $100 from the previous close. And you can see that the hammer back in the end of March didn't have like a positive finish to the week. It had a red head to it. And despite that, though, we saw a bottom in the market went up and traded almost non stop towards 1900 and just above 1900. So what do I think this all means to the price of gold to the technical picture? Well, looking at the fundamentals, nothing's changed. We had CPI that came out actually in line and was actually a little higher than expected. I had an expectation from investing.com of 5.4 came out at 5.5 I think we had a PPI that was the highest in years. We have a Federal Reserve really, that cannot afford to raise rates because of the debt burden that Uncle Sam is carrying, because of the deficits that Uncle Sam is running every year that creates even more that, as I've said many times before, technical analysis is not a perfect science. It's about the probabilities. Back in the end of March. There was a bottom and I guess I was right about that bottom. And right now I think there is another bottom and I think this hammer is even more bullish. I think in the in the matter of weeks. Maybe a couple of months. We could see gold testing the old highs just below 2100 that's the way I see it. Am I telling people to go out there and buy gold or trade gold? No, this is just my opinion of looking at the markets, you need to do your own homework. Maybe you should think about buying a book on technical analysis yourself. How do you look at fundamentals? While fundamentals are things like what's going on in the economy? What's going on with monetary policy? What are the central bank's doing in terms of their balance sheet and interest rates, you need to do that yourself. I did learn from other people in the beginning, but then you have to do the work yourself. And that's what I mean. And now I want to show you another chart for those of you who are not really interested in trading. And this chart is a line chart, it only shows the closes every week, and this is going back five years. And as you can see, gold here, bottom in March 2021 on a weekly basis, as you can see, first of March 2021 at 1700. That's only on a closing basis. And after that it's been going up ever since. What I'm trying to show you here with this line chart is that yes, gold did bottom in March, and we're still above that level. And everything else in the middle is noise. So gold still looks pretty good there. I would say though, looking at the shorter term or the bar chart shows me that actually the situation is quite bullish for gold now. But yes, there are some people out there talking about the Commitment of Traders for the futures and that apparently is looking very good as well. It looks like the hedge funds, who are usually wrong when it when trading futures. They they've closed out most of their Long's I've taken the swaps are the bullion banks. They've lowered a lot their net short positions. And they've had a tough time at closing out a lot of their shorts in this past week, because on Monday, I saw while it was Monday morning around one o'clock, just after midnight here in London, I saw gold drop over $100 to like 1660. And then during the whole trading day on Monday, it came right back up above 1700. It took a couple of days to stabilize around 1720-1740. And then finding the last two days of the week. It just went up quite sharply. Yesterday silver came back to life and outperformed gold. Silver was up over two and a half percent. So that was very encouraging as well. So yeah, that's how I see gold and silver. I look forward to speaking with you tomorrow and answering your questions during our special Bretton Woods gold window closing a live stream at 9pm London 4pm Eastern time. I wish you all a great weekend. Take care Bye
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