Market Scorecard


US shares edged higher on Friday, partly due to a solid employment report which showed that the jobless rate is returning to pre-pandemic levels. All three indexes started the day higher, flopped in midday trading, but climbed again to end in the green. The S&P 500 ended the volatile week up just over 0.1%, while the Nasdaq gained 0.6%. Not too bad, under the circumstances.

The US economy added 431 000 jobs in March, marking 11 straight monthly gains above 400 000, the longest stretch of growth in record dating back to 1939. The unemployment rate fell to 3.6% from 3.8%, slowly approaching the February 2020 rate of 3.5%, which was a 50-year low.

In company news, Nestle announced that it will support farmers with its supply chain to farm more sustainably and help reduce the carbon footprint of its products. According to the UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation, livestock farming contributes around 14.5% of global anthropogenic GHG emissions, mostly in the form of methane.

On Friday, the JSE All-share closed up 0.54%, the S&P 500 gained 0.34%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.29%.

Our 10c Worth


Bright's Banter

Tesla announced record deliveries for the first quarter of 310 048 cars, an increase of 68% from a year earlier. On a rolling 12 month basis, this is also the first time they have delivered more than one million vehicles.

Production growth from Tesla has been exceptional. The company notes that the figure could have been even higher if it wasn't for supply disruptions and a production pause at their Shanghai factory because of city-wide Covid 19 restrictions. Most of the Teslas produced and delivered were the Model 3s or Model Ys. Only around 14 724 of the delivered cars were the higher-end Model S and X.

The rapidly rising price of nickel could cause problems for Tesla in future. Does this mean Tesla should invest in nickel mines, like they have done with lithium, to dodge accelerated price hikes? Only time will tell.

The pause in production at the Shanghai gigafactory is bad news since this plant was responsible for half of Tesla's production last year. Production should be back to normal soon though.

Growth for the rest of the year will come from ramping up production at the newly opened Texas and Berlin factories. We recommend that investors buy and hold Tesla shares.


One Thing, From Paul

We all spend an inordinate amount of time reading about politics, commenting on current political dramas and cursing about politicians. I suppose that this is inevitable, since the conduct of the people who lead the countries we live in has a huge impact on our lives.

We all wish that our own ideologies were better represented at the highest level. Due to wealth inequality and class differences, the elites in many societies are overwhelmed at the polls by the poor, who elect leftists who promise them a utopia. Then nothing changes. Elsewhere right-wing nutjobs are voted in and all hell breaks loose.

People go into politics to advance their own interests, to obtain power and gain influence. Naturally, they adopt the ideologies that are most likely to get them elected. The outcome can be infuriating, with the worst people with the dumbest ideas, making the most noise, getting elected.

Mind you, I'm not despairing because the elites in all societies have considerable influence. They make the money and pay the taxes. I enjoyed this article by Bloomberg's Jonathan Bernstein: Want to Understand Politics? Focus on Ambition.


Byron's Beats

Studying people's emotional reactions to the market is fascinating. When someone has a theory about current market behaviour, their views will tell you more about the storyteller than about the stock price moves.

I really enjoyed the recent "Not Boring" blog by Packy McCormick titled The Current Financial Thing. Seasoned veterans roll their eyes at the youngsters who trade meme stocks and think they have a revolutionary new way of making money. Trading a meme is no different to trading "the current financial thing". Here is an extract.

"So everyone talks about rising rates and hyperinflation and war and food shortages and nuclear threats and supply chain issues and energy prices and IPO windows slammed shut. They create - and may often feel - fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD).

The markets are too complex for anyone to know, with the degree of confidence with which some people pretend to know, what's going to happen tomorrow, let alone in a week, a month, or a year. That's what memes are for. That's why people agree on The Current Financial Thing. Throw in Twitter's algorithmic feed, and people can come to agree with each other more strongly, more quickly than ever before."

I follow markets for a living, so many clients/friends/family/journalists think it's my job to know why the markets are behaving the way they are, and where they will be going next. Actually, my job is to tell them I have no idea because pretending to know is more dangerous to people's financial decisions than just being honest.

Linkfest, Lap It Up


Morning Brew's primary newsletter has surpassed 4 million subscribers. They generated about $50 million in revenue in 2021, which was a boom year for money-related publications - Morning Brew actively exploring M&A to extend its coverage into new verticals.

New York public libraries scrapped late fees to encourage more people through their doors. Wiping the slate clean has resulted in a flood of old books returning, including some from over 50 years ago - The Library Ends Late Fees, and the Treasures Roll In.

Signing Off


Asian stocks are firmer today, with a nice rally in Hong Kong due to China's move to ease a dispute with the US over audits. Somewhat surprisingly, the administration in Beijing seems keen to allow offshore-listed firms to share more sensitive financial information with foreign regulators. This will reduce the risk of Chinese companies like Alibaba losing their Wall Street listings.

US equity futures are moderately higher in early trade. The Rand is trading at R14.65 to the US Dollar.

Greetings from a wet and misty Johannesburg. Have a top week!

Sent to you by Team Vestact.