Posted BY: John Kudla
Oh, happy days are here again! According to the left-wing media, Democrats may be able to defy the odds and keep control of both the Senate and the House in November. You can read about it here, here, and here.
There is a hair of truth mixed into Democrat optimism. Joe Manchin's sell-out on the Inflation Reduction Act, AKA the Green New Deal, was a multi-billion-dollar boon for green energy liberals like Bill Gates. Likewise, the Supreme Court overturning Roe is a fundraising boon for leftist politicians who want to campaign on abortion. Even Joe Biden benefited — although it took all of the above plus positive news on unemployment, the passage of the Chips Act, a downward drift in the price of gasoline, and a slight decline in the inflation rate to create a five-point dead cat bounce in his approval numbers.
The recent House special election in New York District 19 for the unexpired term of Antonio Delgado is considered a positive for Democrats. The interesting part is that Republican Mark Molinaro, the loser, will run against a different Democrat in a redrawn version of District 19 in the November election. In addition, Democrat Pat Ryan will run against a different Republican in District 18. With these unique circumstances and turnout at only 25% versus 70% in the 2020 general election, this seems less like a bellwether and more like a who-cares election.
So before the Democrats prematurely raise the hammer and sickle flag over Congress for the next term, we should look at some facts.
Much of the supposed good news for Democrats may not matter. According to The Washington Post, abortion and climate change were dead last in a mid-July Economist/YouGov poll of 14 midterm election issues. Jobs and the economy were first. A CBS poll taken in late June had a similar result. Voters' primary concern was inflation, followed by the economy, crime, gun policy, and immigration. Both polls were taken after the Supreme Court decision on abortion.
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