While global supply chains experience significant volatility, African exploration and production has begun to ramp up as international stakeholders turn their attention to high potential energy markets across the continent.
As such, Africa's energy landscape is on the precipice of widespread change, opening up lucrative opportunities for financiers and project developers alike. Stepping into this picture, the African Energy Chamber (AEC) (www.EnergyChamber.org) is proud to announce the official release of its Q1 2023 outlook, The State of African Energy. Providing a comprehensive overview of the African energy sector, the outlook provides valuable insight into the current state and future prospects of the market, serving as a guide for investors and African energy policymakers.
The report covers a variety of critical themes including demand and supply forecasts, policy and regulatory frameworks, project status and outlook, and renewable prospects and demand, providing investors and researchers with the insights they need to make informed decisions on the market in 2023 and beyond.
Regarding oil supply, the report details 2023 global liquid outlooks, stating that month-on-month, liquids are expected to remain flat and stable while African liquids and supply are expected to add up to 8% of the global volumes over the year. The top five producers will be Nigeria, Libya, Algeria, Angola and Egypt, accounting for approximately 80% of the continent's supply, with majority of production coming from Nigeria and Angola. On the gas side, Africa's gas output is seen to primarily be driven by North and West African projects, with output expected to measure 268 billion cubic meters. Production from existing producing fields is anticipated to decline significantly, with a reverse in this trend only expected from the currently pre-final investment decision (FID) fields. Regarding Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), Africa's total LNG export infrastructure is expected to increase from the existing 80 million tons per annum (mtpa) to about 110 mtpa by 2030, increasing even further to 175 mtpa by 2040. Major markets driving supply will be Nigeria, Algeria, Mozambique, Senegal-Mauritania, Tanzania and Egypt.
Meanwhile, on the project front, the report provides insight into recent discoveries and their impacts on supply. Africa's upcoming upstream projects have already seen large delays from the time the hydrocarbon discoveries were made to the estimated future FID, and with many of these discoveries expected to stabilize production and offset terminal decline in output – while natural gas finds help the continent meet domestic demand, power needs and LNG export aspirations – developing these discoveries is key. The report states that over half of the hydrocarbon output from Africa over the period 2025-2040, and about 60% of the remaining recoverable oil and gas reserves, are estimated to come from these finds. As such, Governments are putting in efforts to bring these projects online while increasing exploration investment. Approximately $795 billion of greenfield expenditure is required between 2023 and 2040, showcasing the immense investment opportunities available.
In addition to oil and gas, the report explores Africa's renewable energy outlook, providing key insight into project developments, investment prospects and challenges impacting development. Specifically, the report identifies that Africa's current announced renewables capacity stands at 134 GW of wind capacity, 120 GW of solar and 112 GW of hydrogen, with Egypt, Morocco, Mauritania and South Africa leading capacity. While over 75% of capacity is currently in the concept stage, the continent's overall renewable capacity is projected to increase from about 27.4 GW in 2023 to 280 GW in 2035, showcasing significant opportunities for investors and project developers alike.
"Our most recent report, The State of African Energy Q1, 2023 Outlook, provides investors with the information they need to expand financing in Africa. The report also offers African energy policymakers, project developers and Governments with the tools they need to develop the market, addressing energy poverty by getting large-scale oil, gas and renewable energy projects off the ground. As an advocate for the success of the African energy sector, the AEC is committed to facilitating new investment and development across the continent, and our most recent report does just that, equipping stakeholders with insights, analysis and projections. The year 2023 is going to be a big year for the African energy sector, and this report offers a comprehensive guide to investing in and developing African energy projects," stated NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman of the AEC.
The State of African Energy Q1 2023 Outlook details the emerging trends shaping the world's oil economy and highlights Africa's role in meeting global demand.
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