Market Commentary

Equity index futures traded lower overnight. Commodities, the dollar, and yields rose.

  • Jackson Hole Economic Symposium starts.
  • Ahead: Data on GDP, jobless claims, profit.
  • Participants position for a directional move.

What Happened: U.S. stock index futures auctioned lower overnight ahead of the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole Economic Symposium August 26-28, 2021.

Ahead is data on GDP, corporate profits, and jobless claims (8:30 AM ET).

Graphic updated 6:20 AM ET. Sentiment Neutral if expected /ES open is inside of the prior day's range. SqueezeMetrics Dark Pool Index (DIX) and Gamma (GEX) calculations are based on where the prior day's reading falls with respect to the MAX and MIN of all occurrences available. A higher DIX is bullish. At the same time, the lower the GEX, the more (expected) volatility. SHIFT data used for S&P 500 (INDEX: SPX) options activity approximation. Note that options flow is sorted by the call premium spent; if more positive then more was spent on call options. Breadth reflects a reading of the prior day's Advance/Decline indicator. VIX reflects a current reading of the CBOE Volatility Index (INDEX: VIX) from 0-100.

What To Expect: As of 6:20 AM ET, Thursday's regular session (9:30 AM - 4:00 PM EST) in the S&P 500 will likely open inside of prior-range and -value, suggesting a limited potential for immediate directional opportunity.

Adding, during the prior day's regular trade, on weaker intraday breadth, volume, and market liquidity metrics, the best case outcome occurred, evidenced by trade above the $4,481.75 high volume area (HVNode) pivot. This trade is significant because it marked the repair of the $4,492.00 overnight, a minimal excess all-time high (ONH), and a move higher in value (i.e., an acceptance of higher prices). 

Graphic: Divergent delta (i.e., non-committed buying as measured by volume delta) in SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY), one of the largest ETFs that track the S&P 500 index. 

Further, the aforementioned trade is happening in the context of the highly anticipated Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. This event may have a large impact on the price as policymakers reinforce the message of taper to bond-buying; to elaborate, "The Fed has fostered a broad range of bubbles because their massive liquidity injections have been trapped in the financial economy," Rich Bernstein of Richard Bernstein Associates said in a summary quoted by Bloomberg. 

"As with any cornered market, there are limited buyers and prices fall as the "cornerer" sells. Accordingly, bond prices seem likely to fall (interest rates rise) [as the] Fed reduces its cornered positions. Rising interest rates could be the kryptonite to the bubble in long-duration assets (long-term bonds, technology, innovation, disruption, bitcoin, etc.)."

At the same time, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM) metrics published by The Market Ear, the market isn't pricing too much risk ahead of the event; "the SPX and the SX5E are pricing in a 1% move, … but on the other hand 1 day realized vol for Jackson Hole events has been around 0.45% for SX5E writes JPM."

We balance the risks presented by the event by looking back to 2014 when the Fed was scaling back bond purchases and the S&P 500 rose over 10% as rates fell after spiking initially.

Graphic: Ally Financial Inc-owned (NYSE: ALLY) Ally Invest unpacks 2014 taper of Federal Reserve bond buying.

Moreover, for today, participants may make use of the following frameworks.

In the best case, the S&P 500 trades sideways or higher; activity above the $4,494.25 high volume area (HVNode) puts in play the $4,495.00 untested point of control (VPOC). Initiative trade beyond the VPOC could reach as high as the $4,511.50 and $4,556.25 Fibonacci extensions.

In the worst case, the S&P 500 trades lower; activity below the $4,484.25 HVNode puts in play the $4,454.25 low volume area (LVNode). Initiative trade beyond the LVNode could reach as low as the $4,427.00 VPOC and $4,393.75 micro composite point of control (MCPOC).

Volume Areas: A structurally sound market will build on past areas of high volume. Should the market trend for long periods of time, it will lack sound structure (identified as a low volume area which denotes directional conviction and ought to offer support on any test).   If participants were to auction and find acceptance into areas of prior low volume, then future discovery ought to be volatile and quick as participants look to areas of high volume for favorable entry or exit.  POCs: POCs are valuable as they denote areas where two-sided trade was most prevalent. Participants will respond to future tests of value as they offer favorable entry and exit.
Graphic: 65-minute profile chart of the Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures updated 6:20 AM ET.

News And Analysis

Good times keep rolling for U.S. alternative asset managers.

Virtual Jackson Hole underscores uncertainty in Fed's vision.

Small caps are having a nice move higher on fundamentals.

Bank of Korea ups rate with debt risk seen bigger than virus.

La Nina's return could threaten South American crops again.

As labor demand exceeds supply it may be the time to taper.

Asian banks' crypto-asset push calls for regulatory harmony.

PIIE: There's another reason to up the Fed's inflation target.

Dick's Sporting Goods, other retailers, unpack higher profits.

Delta Air Lines imposes monthly surcharge on unvaccinated.

What People Are Saying

About

After years of self-education, strategy development, and trial-and-error, Renato Leonard Capelj began trading full-time and founded Physik Invest to detail his methods, research, and performance in the markets. 

Additionally, Capelj is a finance and technology reporter. Some of his biggest works include interviews with leaders such as John Chambers, founder and CEO, JC2 Ventures, Kevin O'Leary, businessman and Shark Tank host, Catherine Wood, CEO and CIO, ARK Invest, among others.

Disclaimer

At this time, Physik Invest does not manage outside capital and is not licensed. In no way should the materials herein be construed as advice. Derivatives carry a substantial risk of loss. All content is for informational purposes only.

Subscribe