Serafino Iacono: We are Setting up for a Metals Cycle Unlike Any We Have Ever Seen
Tom welcomes Serafino Iacono to the show. Serafino is the executive Chairman of GCM Mining and the founder of numerous other resource companies.
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Even ignoring most factors around energy Sarafino states that we can see serious problems with the industry for the past ten years. We have a growing world demanding more energy since many parts are rapidly developing. Western nations are not living in reality and have divested away from energy and resource company development. The consequences are being felt now. Consumption continues to rise and few are figuring out how and where we will get these vital resources.
He discusses the importance of finding sustainable solutions to reduce the excessive need for plastics. We should be using glass and paper products as we have done in the past. Products shouldn't be merely disposable instead they should be repairable and re-used. The world needs balance.
Natural gas is needed because it's good transitional energy. Coal will still have an important role in global energy. Metals that used to be ordinary are becoming increasingly strategic. These include nickel, zinc, and lithium. In addition, there isn't enough copper to meet the demands of electrification. Vast quantities will be needed for car chargers and electric vehicle infrastructure.
He discusses the importance of magnesium in strengthening aluminum and the consequences of dramatically rising prices.
The entire world is realigning with other countries and adjusting their priorities. The events in Russia and Ukraine have only sped up a process that was already occurring. Metals are becoming increasingly strategic and are being sourced closer to where they used in industry. Many countries' laws are changing to prevent the export of these critical metals. Whoever invests in metals will make fortunes over the next twenty to thirty years.
He discusses how technology has improved the metal extraction business and reduced the environmental impacts. Technology is key to improving metal recovery. Lastly, Serafino discusses which countries he prefers and dislikes in Latin America.
The Metals Bull Market isn't Dead
Tom welcomes back David Kranzler of Investment Research Dynamics to the show.
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Dave argues that the weekly economic data is indicative of the U.S. already in a recession. Eighty percent of all U.S. households have been experiencing the characteristics of a recession. Credit card usage is spiking and this is likely because people are relying on them to make ends meet. Inflation remains rampant at double digits.
It seems unlikely that the Fed will conduct quantitative tightening. Government spending deficit continues to balloon. This year's tax receipts will likely be down and the deficits will only increase. Who will be buying that debt other than the Fed?
In addition, there appear to be major problems occurring behind the curtains with the credit markets. The quality of corporate credit is deteriorating quickly.
We've been seeing a slow steady shift away from the dollar for the past decade. China has been utilizing its own currency in bilateral trade for some time. China has increased the size of its Asian trading markets so they are now less reliant on trade with the United States.
The derivatives markets are the Achilles heel of the system. An example is the paper 'gold' derivatives versus the actual physical markets. They rely on investors leaving their 'metal' on the exchanges. Their worst nightmare would be for numerous funds and investors to demand delivery.
He discusses what happens when general investors start moving into the miners and the outsized returns one can expect.
Dave discusses the lack of investigation of fraud by the SEC. Every market cycle seems to make these investigations less likely. A lot of fraud continues to be perpetuated and there is a revolving door between government and corporations.
Henrik Zeberg: The Deflationary Crash is Nearly Here
Tom welcomes Macroeconomist Henrik Zeberg back to the show. Henrik is seeing a blow-off top coming which will unfold over mid-summer. This will be followed by a deflationary bust which will take everything down. We're going to see devastating stagflation coming later. Trades are based on human emotion, and the algos also look for these patterns.
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Henrik discusses where we are at based on Elliot Wave theory. It's indicating a mega deflationary bust coming soon. The Fed will accelerate the bust because they will hike rates too quickly. The inflationary spike we have had will reverse.
Kondratieff winters normally come with conflict and Henrik shares a cycle chart that demonstrates this phase. Winters are normally deflationary and come with periods of high unemployment, pension problems, currency death, and trade wars. Many of these effects are still coming. The world is trying to squeeze the last bit of growth out of the economic system.
Henrik explains where he thinks the dollar will head from here and why the long-term trend will continue to be lower. We could reach the 116 area, and then we will see the decline. Nothing moves in a straight line.
He believes we are in a correction phase of the bull marketm and this gives room for a blow-off and crash later this year. We need five waves and he can only count four on the current charts. Volatility has been declining which indicates we are not yet in a crash. He shows the evidence for why we are not yet in a crash. Market liquidity will be vital for a blow-off top, and China has recently begun stimulus. It will be risk-on driven, and we could see one further run in stocks and crypto.
Henrik discusses what assets he considers safe in the coming correction. The Fed will intervene once again, and they will attempt to pump up the bubbles again. That's when he will be long gold and silver miners. In the meantime, he expects a significant correction in gold.
Lastly, he discusses Russia and its effects on the dollar and why the world needs a new currency system, perhaps based on blockchain.
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